According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), a global outlook of NR supply is anticipated at 13.784 million metric tons in 2018, up 4.5% from 13.196 million metric tons recorded in 2017. The slower production growth in 2018 is mainly attributed to a lower production anticipated by Thailand at 4.375 million metric tons, down by 1.2% on a year-to-year basis.
An outlook on global demand for NR in 2018 is forecasted to grow by 2.8% from 12.964 million metric tons in 2017 to 13.327 million metric tons. ANRPC member countries will continue their efforts to encourage more uses of NR in their respective countries, for better balance of supply and demand and sustainability of the NR industry in the long run.
The upward revision for global economy outlook during 2018 by IMF resulted from the increase of global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recent approved US tax policy changes. Furthermore, the outlook on commodity markets is expected to improve during 2018. This is followed by the efforts of agreed oil production cut by OPEC and geopolitical tensions in the middle east, which will support the oil prices. This may result in a better recovery in NR prices this year.
In January 2018, an early winter season in China has slowed down production. This seasonal phenomenon will soon be happening in other major producing countries, too. A slow-down in NR supply may be expected, and this may lead to a much more balanced supply and demand in the NR market in the coming months.
March 1, 2018
